Sharing my trip

So I've decided the best way to share my trip to Hong Kong with all my family and friends back home is to post it to this blog. Hope you all enjoy!

Monday, May 18, 2009

2009 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals

In case you missed it, here are my predictions for the conference semifinals, which links to all my earlier posts. Huzzah for a 4-0 round. Sadly no perfects, more on that in a moment.

All right, it's down to the wire, and now it's time to get serious. Picks time, and once again, I guarantee only that I will tout my wins and forget my losses.

#1 Los Angeles (65-17)
#2 Denver (54-28)
Los Angeles won the season series 3-1

First, a recap of the previous series'. Denver played much, much better than I expected, and Dallas played much, much worse than I expected, so Denver winning in 5 came as quite a surprise when Dallas was playing pretty good ball at the time. Similarly, Houston played much, much better than I expected, and LA played much, much than I expected, so the Lakers pulling it out in 7 games was quite a shock. That being said, in games 5 and 7, when the Lakers actually showed up, they simply dominated Houston, like they really should have throughout the entire series. Yet, it seems like they're content to simply flip the switch when they feel like, which is unsettling.

That being said, now it is time to look forward instead of backward. I think this series will be a lot more difficult than most Laker fans are anticipating, but if the Lakers turn it on, I really think they could easily sweep this series. If they don't, however, I can also see it going 7 games. It really depends on which Laker team shows up on any given night. Here are a few keys to the series:

1.) Offensive Rebounding
The twin headed 7-foot monster of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum should eat the Nuggets front line. Kenyon Martin is 6'9, Nene is a very dubious 6'11, and Birdman Andersen is 6'10. So long as both those guys work on the boards, LA should have an enormous rebounding advantage. If Pau Gasol can come out like he did in Game 7 against Houston and really dominate the glass, this Laker team is unstoppable. Likewise, if Denver can play LA to a draw on the boards, that should be considered a win for them.

2.) Bench Play
The Nuggets bench of Anthony Carter, Birdman Andersen, and JR Smith have absolutely obliterated opponents. The Lakers bench has to match their intensity if LA has any chance of winning this series, so that means Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic are going to have to step up. Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic will be especially important, as Walton will almost definitely draw the assignment of guarding Carmelo Anthony, who is literally a scoring machine, and Sasha Vujacic will have the uneviable task of covering JR Smith. If Sasha can shut down JR Smith he did to Von Wafer against Houston, the Lakers will win this series. Smith's shooting is so important to the Nuggets offense, as his bombing away threes really gives them momentum. Taking that momentum away will be critical, and Vujacic will be the key.

3.) Chauncey Billups
I would say Point Guards, but LA's point guard by committee group really can't measure up to Billups. However, it is important that Derek Fisher, Farmar, and Brown all body up to Chauncey and make sure he isn't able to bomb away from the three point line like he did against New Orleans. I think LA would almost prefer Chauncey getting in to the lane as opposed to bombing away from three, as LA plays the passing lanes very well and have very good help interior defense. If the Lakers PG's can play Billups to a draw, LA will walk through this series easily.

Denver is playing with a lot of energy and a lot of effort right now, so it is important for LA to match that intensity from the start, especially in Games 1 and 2. If the Nuggets manage to take either of the first two games in LA, like Houston did, the Lakers will not be able to pull it out. Denver is a very good home team, so it's important that LA hold serve if they want to win this series.

Overall, I could easily see this series being long, with home court dictating who wins in the end. So long as Denver doesn't have a massive meltdown, and LA doesn't give Denver a gift of one of the games in Staples Center in LA, this one goes the distance, going to LA due to homecourt.
Prediction: LA in 7

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#3 Orlando (59-23)

Orlando won the season series, 2-1
I was very impressed by Orlando's Game 7 win against Boston in Boston. Hedo Turkoglu hit some really tough shots, and Rashard Lewis really took advantage of whoever the Celtics through at him. Still, Cleveland has absolutely dominated these playoffs, winning every game by double figures. Yet, Cleveland played Detroit and Atlanta in their two series, who wouldn't even make the playoffs if they played in the Western Conference. That being said, Cleveland's lop-sided victories are a little bit misleading. Orlando really clobbered Cleveland late in the season, a 29-point whomping on April 3rd in Orlando, so it's not as if Orlando simply can't beat Cleveland. However, Cleveland is a different animal in the postseason when Lebron James plays more minutes and the Cavs rotation shortens. Much as I would love to pick the Magic to pull it out, I just can't see the Cavs and James losing, especially when the refs are basically allowing James to bull his way to the hoop whenever he wants. I think Orlando makes this one difficult, especially given that Orlando has beaten Cleveland in Orlando both times that they played in the regular season. Yet, James still gets the edge.
Prediction: Cleveland in 7

Monday, May 4, 2009

2009 NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Semifinals

In case you missed it, check out my Western Conference Semifinals picks, and my first-round picks if you're so inclined to see how awesome I am. Pfff, no one saw Dallas dominating San Antonio, admit it... Overall, I'm 7-1 picking winners with 3 perfects.

Wow, talk about polar opposites. While 5 out of the 7 games between Boston and Chicago were decided by 3 or less points, none of the 7 games between Atlanta and Miami were decided by less than 18. While BOS-CHI was arguably the most exciting series ever, ATL-MIA was a huge snoozefest, every single game decided before the half was over. That being said, after a somewhat exciting Orlando-Philly series in which Philly snuck in a couple victories before going quietly into that good night, and a heinously predictable 4-0 pounding Cleveland unleashed on Detroit, it's time for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#4 Atlanta (47-35)
Cleveland won the season series 3-1

Atlanta is a very good home team. Once more just for emphasis' sake, Atlanta is a very good home team. At home, Atlanta was an impressive 31-10, while they were a paltry 16-25 on the road. That being said, I can't see them taking more than one game from Cleveland. Cleveland is a different animal in the postseason when they shorten their rotation and basically play LeBron for all 48 minutes. However, I really feel like Atlanta is talented enough, and shown by their excellent team defense against Dwyane Wade, they should be able to contain James to some degree. I like their chances of taking at least one game on their home floor, but I don't think Atlanta has it in them to win both. With that and Cleveland's nearly impeccable home record, this one still ends quickly.
Prediction: Cleveland in 5

#2 Boston (62-20)
#3 Orlando (59-23)
Season series tied 2-2

Boston is simply a different team without KG, as shown by their struggles against the young Chicago Bulls, despite 5 amazing games from Ray Allen, who's making the case to be the best clutch shooter ever. Orlando, meanwhile, is playing terrible and will be without their best perimeter defender, Courtney Lee, at SG. The one of the big matchups will be PF, where Rashard Lewis plays an undersized, shooting oriented style, going against the much bigger, fatter, whinier CryBaby Davis. Oh, and Orlando does have Dwight Howard, the 6'11" athletic monster in the middle who is much too fast for Kendrick "I Eat Babies For Pleasure, Not Sustenance" Perkins. This will probably force Boston to double team, something they hate doing, so look for Orlando's shooters to have tons of open shots. Without KG, I just don't think Boston can pull out the victory, especially after playing so hard against Chicago, who were also young and athletic and had shooters galore.

That being said, so long as Boston has Ray Allen and is within 6 points in the final minutes, I'm shaking in my boots if I'm an Orlando supporter. Allen has proven himself to be an assassin, and not just a one-time assassin either. He can do it night-in, night-out, so stopping Allen will be Orlando's toughest mission and the key to this series.
Prediction: Orlando in 6

Friday, May 1, 2009

2009 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Semifinals

Since the Eastern Conference is still utterly undecided, I'll start off with the predictions for the Western conference today and follow up with Eastern Conference picks on Sunday night when Miami plays Atlanta in their game 7. That being said, Boston-Chicago has been epic, and I've been lucky to have caught every single game, and each one has been an instant classic. Could not ask for more in any series.

With that, let's get to the West semifinals picks.

#1 Los Angeles 65-17
#5 Houston 53-29
LA won the season series 4-0


It makes me very sad that LA didn't manage to close out Utah in 4 as I predicted. Despite giving up numerous leads and allowing Utah to make large runs at the end of games, Utah barely managed to beat LA at home by 2, with Kobe Bryant having one of the worst shooting games of his playoff career. Luckily, Houston made up for it by beating Portland in six as predicted. Houston did exactly what I predicted: Steal one of the first two games against the inexperienced Portland, then ride home court to the series win. That being said, this Houston team has now run out of time. Houston had the advantage of playing against one of the league's slowest offenses in Portland, allowing Houston's lock-down individual defense to set itself on almost every possession and utterly shut-down the Blazers potent offense. Meanwhile, the Lakers simply overpowered the Jazz, who could not score nearly enough points to keep up.

Expect LA to get out and run on every chance it gets, repeatedly beating Yao Ming down the court for easy dunks and layups. Also, don't expect Yao Ming to be as unstoppable against the Lakers, as LA is a much more practiced help defense team than Portland. There are advantages all over the court for LA: Scola cannot guard Odom or Gasol, Yao cannot keep up with Bynum or Gasol, and Kobe absolutely loves torching Artest. Similar to the Utah series, I just can't see how the Rockets will keep up against LA purely in terms of scoring.

One thing that cannot be underestimed is the Lakers closing lineup of Fisher, Bryant, Ariza, Odom, and Gasol. With that lineup, Yao cannot guard either Odom or Gasol, so forcing him into the Kobe Gasol Pick-and-Roll will be a nightmare for Houston defensively. On the other side, Houston simply doesn't have a go to scorer if Yao is being doubled hard and the easy passing lanes are being cut off. Oh, and LA also has that guy named Bryant. He's pretty good from what I've heard.
Prediction: LA in 4

#2 Denver 54-28
#6 Dallas 50-32
Denver won the season series 4-0


Both of these teams truly surprised. I did not think that Denver had the defensive prowess to contain Chris Paul, but Dahntay Jones and many others did an excellent job of shutting him down. I also wasn't sure if Dallas could defend a motivated San Antonio, but San Antonio helped them by not having anyone who could score other than Parker and Duncan. Overall, this series is extremely tough to gauge. The teams match-up extremely well, and I really think this series comes down to who can shoot the ball better. Between Dirk Nowitski, Jason Terry, Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony, and JR Smith, this series will feature mostly long bombs and probably very few interior plays. This series hinges on the guard matchups between Billups and Jason Kidd and Jason Terry and JR Smith, where Kidd will be able to guard the relatively slow Billups (at least compared to Chris Paul), and Billups will have to respect Kidd's three point shot and rebounding ability. Between Smith and Terry, it comes down to who plays less defense. Both of these guys can bomb away, but whoever contests better will win the day. Since both these teams are prototypical great at home, .500 on the road teams, and the teams are so evenly matched, I have to go with the homecourt.
Prediction: Denver in 7