2008 NBA Playoffs: 2nd Round Predictions

(See my 2008 NBA Playoffs Predictions, and my 1st round results post.)

Well the first round is (mostly) over, so it's time for my revised second round predictions (given that some of my first rounders were wrong...). Just a little disclaimer before we continue: I do not guarantee accuracy nor credibility, but I do guarantee selective memory in touting my correct picks and conveniently forgetting those that I get wrong. With that, on to the 2nd round...

East

#1 Boston vs. #4 Cleveland

This is assuming that Boston wins Game 7 vs Atlanta, which I fully expect them to considering they've handed the Hawks three 20 point beatdowns in Boston during this series. Even so, because the Celtics have gone the distance against the Hawks, I have absolutely no confidence with them against Lebron James and co. If they can't stop Joe Johnson, they won't stop Lebron. Boston may come out like the real Boston (the one from the regular season that dominated and won 66 games) and make me look stupid, but I'm not betting against Lebron anymore.

Prediction: Cleveland in 6

#2 Detroit vs. #3 Orlando

Unlike Boston, I think Detroit has actually pulled it together. They played pretty well, beating down the 76ers in the last 2 games, closing out the series in 6. And although Orlando did beat Toronto in 5, it is Toronto... The Raptors didn't have the size nor the strength to deal with Dwight Howard, but the Pistons do have a few big men that they'll throw at him to slow him down. I also think that Detroit's perimeter defense will be able to shut down the Magic's three point shooting. With those two things down (Howard, 3-pointers), the Magic really have nothing else to go to.

Prediction: Detroit in 6

West

#1 Los Angeles vs. #4 Utah

Utah played a pretty good series vs. Houston, but they did allow T-Mac to get 40 points in the close-out game despite him having to play 1 on 5. Plus, with Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko having almost non-existent postseasons, the Lakers will be able to take this one with Kobe Bryant again leading the way (and fresh off his MVP award...?).

Prediction: LA in 6

#2 New Orleans vs. #3 San Antonio

God, this is the hardest one to pick. New Orleans is coming off a great series, absolutely dominating Dallas in the first round (causing Dallas to fire their coach). Yet, San Antonio is also coming off a great series, pounding the crap out of Phoenix in 4 out of 5 games, 1 of them a classic (Game 1), 2 huge beatdowns (2 and 3), Phoenix's last gasp (4), and the closeout (5). This one's so hard to pick because it's not as if we can use the regular season to compare the Spurs to the Hornets (because the Spurs just don't give a crap during the regular season, obviously...). I have a feeling this is going to come back and bite me in the ass, but I'm going to pick youth over experience, and go with Chris Paul and the Hornets. Hopefully Robert Horry gets hurt (so he won't be able to put Chris Paul into the stands like he did to Steve Nash).

Prediction: New Orleans in 7

...

God, these playoffs turned out gay. Whoever went chalk with their picks got them all correct... Western Conference most competitive ever my ass. Till the next round, where I'll probably tout my correct picks this round, and casually forget/brush-off my wrong picks.

2008 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round Prediction Results

Well...for those of you who read my 2008 NBA playoffs picks, they generally fell into 3 distinctly different categories: the ones I got entirely correct, the ones I got mostly correct, and the ones I got completely wrong. With that, let's have a little recap.

Predictions that were entirely correct:

East

#3 Orlando vs. #6 Toronto
Prediction: Orlando in 5
Result: Orlando in 5

Orlando took the first two games with ease, as expected. After those first two games, I thought perhaps that Orlando might sweep, but the Raptors came back in Toronto as expected with a good effort due to home court advantage. However, Orlando easily took the next two, as the combined strength of Dwight Howard and the Magic's 3-point shooting were too much for the streaky-shooting Raptors (despite a monster 39 point, 15 rebound game from Chris Bosh in game 4.).

West

#1 Los Angeles vs. #8 Denver
Prediction: LA in 4
Result: LA in 4

Many of ESPN's experts picked this one to be the Lakers in 5 or 6 games, but I knew better. The Lakers simply had too many offensive weapons, with both Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol having a monster series. Plus, the Lakers ability to play occasional defense made all the difference between them and high-scoring Nuggets. Of course, the Nuggets basically imploding in a couple games helped, but that was sort of expected given their team make-up and abundance of tattoos.

#4 Utah vs. #5 Houston
Prediction: Utah in 6
Result: Utah leads 3-2 as of 11:45, 05-02-08 (*Update*: Utah won pretty big, building a huge lead going into the 4th quarter. So Utah takes the series in6, as I predicted ;) ).

Game 6 is going as I'm typing this, but the Jazz are up by 16 now with less than 6 minutes to go in the first half, and they're at home, so I'll just assume they're going to win (sorry Houston). Now that I think about it, I really shouldn't have given the Rockets two wins, given my analysis of their only play (Tracy McGrady dribble/turnover). But, the return of Rafer Alston really helped T-Mac, and the Rockets were able to pull out two wins, one extremely impressive victory in Utah, and an enormous 95-69 beatdown in Game 5 when down 3-1. But, T-Mac is basically alone in this series, and him carrying them this far has been an amazing achievement. I feel bad for the guy, because he's infamous for going out in the first round of the playoffs, but most of the time it really hasn't been his fault. (UPDATE: wow, in the two minutes I've used to type this, the Rockets have managed to pull within 9, and T-Mac already has 24 points with 4 minutes to go in the 1st half! I may have to change this prediction later...)

Predictions that were mostly correct:

East

#2 Detroit vs. #7 Philadelphia
Prediction: Detroit in 5
Result: Detroit in 6

I expected Philadelphia to have at least one solid game on their home floor, but I didn't expect them to take the first game in Detroit, at all. But, the Pistons finally came alive after Game 3, and took it to the 76ers with 2 impressive wins, one in Philadelphia, the other at home winning by 17. Detroit was simply too good for the overachieving 76ers. Sorry Philly, better luck next year...

West

#2 New Orleans vs. #7 Dallas
Prediction: New Orleans in 6
Result: New Orleans in 5

I'm quite proud of this one, mostly because many of ESPN's "experts" picked Dallas to win, most attributing it to their "playoff experience." But, all the smart analysts (aka those that don't appear on TV), actually know enough about basketball to realize that playoff experience is a joke when matching up against a quicker, smarter, better coached, more efficient basketball team. And as I predicted, Chris Paul made Jason Kidd look like a retiree, averaging 24 points, 12 assists, and 2 steals a game, including a monster 32 point, 17 assist Game 2 and a triple-double in the decisive Game 5.

Predictions that I got completely wrong:

East

#1 Boston vs. #8 Atlanta
Prediction: Boston in 4
Result: Tied 3-3 as of 05-02-08

I completely did not see this coming. Atlanta has played with so much heart, and Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith have all been amazing for the Hawks in this series. Plus, Boston has played with a lot less intensity than I expected, and this causes me to seriously doubt their potential to win the championship this year (or even beat Cleveland in the 2nd round). I predict that Boston will win Game 7, simply because of their home court advantage, where they've pretty much taken it to the Hawks at home. But still, great series from Atlanta. Their future looks very bright indeed.

#4 Cleveland vs. #5 Washington
Prediction: Washington in 6
Result: Cleveland in 6

I bet against Lebron James, and I paid the price. Washington didn't show half the toughness or defensive intensity that I expected out of them, and they allowed James to basically beat the crap out of them all by himself. Plus, the return of Gilbert Arenas seemed to hurt a lot of players chemistry, especially Caron Butler, who had a couple good games, but also a couple of real stinkers. Antawn Jamison was also extremely quiet in this series, not being nearly as dominating as he needed to be for the Wizards to win.

West

#3 San Antonio vs. #6 Phoenix
Prediction: Phoenix in 6
Result: San Antonio in 5

Man, the Spurs are such a-holes. They lie in wait, biding their time until the playoffs, then they just magically turn it on. It's almost as if the regular season is just their stretching and warm-ups, and the playoffs are the actual game. Game 1 was amazing, with the game going to double OT on threes by Michael Finley, and of all people, Tim Duncan. After that, it was all down-hill for the Suns, who couldn't hold a lead nor keep a rhythm. Some blame this on Hack-a-Shaq, used by Greg Popovich (coach of the Spurs) to discombobulate Phoenix's highly rhythm oriented offense. But man, I can't believe the Spurs are this good despite being so old. Maybe it's the return of Robert Horry? ;)

...

I'll save my revised second round picks for tomorrow, just because I'm tired and need some time to think about my predictions before actually explaining them :P.

NBA: Where the 2008 Playoffs Happen

And so begins the craziest NBA playoffs in decades. As of yesterday, the playoff match-ups were set, and now its time to get down to business of picking the winners. Some of the winners will be obvious; others, not so much. And while I do not guarantee accuracy nor credibility, I do want to get my picks on record (ya know, just in case they turn out right. Then I can shove it in everyone's face. That's the goal.). For those of you who don't know, each series is best of 7, so if one team gets 4 wins, they advance. Whoever has the better record has home court advantage, with games being played 2 home - 2 away- 1 home - 1 away - 1 home until the Finals, when it switches to 2 home - 3 away - 2 home. With that, let's get to the games...

Let's start in the Eastern Conference, because that one's easier...

Eastern Conference
First Round

#1 Boston (66-16) vs. #8 Atlanta (37-45)

Um....nothing really to say here. If Boston loses even one game, I think Kevin Garnett may have a psychotic reaction. And the Celtics really don't want to see that. That and the Hawks kinda suck. And Boston won 29 more games than Atlanta this season (there are 82 games in all).
Verdict: Boston in 4

#2 Detroit (59-23) vs. #7 Philadelphia (40-42)

The Pistons come into the playoffs with the second best record in the East, but they've lost their past two games to Philadelphia in March and April. Albeit the Pistons didn't really try for March and April, but the fact that they gave up 100 points to Philadelphia is cause for concern. However, Philadelphia is mostly a fast-pace team, relying on fast breaks and hot shooting streaks to win games, and in a 7 game series against one of the slowest, most deliberate teams in the league, I doubt that Philadelphia will be able to play at the pace in which they enjoy so much success.
Verdict: Detroit in 5

#3 Orlando (52-30) vs. #6 Toronto (41-41)

God I hate Toronto...every year I think they're gonna have a monster season at the beginning, then they either get injured and/or play really shitty. This season has been a good mix of both. As for Orlando, a lot of people say they rely a lot on the 3, but why wouldn't you when you have Dwight Howard in the middle? Howard is (period) the most athletic big man in the league, and containing him is difficult for any team despite Howard's lack of low-post prowess (he relies so much on his athleticism as opposed to skills and maneuvers). Plus, Toronto been playing especially crappy as of late, so I don't see any reason why they would give the Magic any trouble.
Verdict: Orlando in 5

#4 Cleveland (45-37) vs. #5 Washington (43-39)

Man, I really don't like this Cavs team... and I really like this Washington team. Gilbert Arenas coming off the bench is by far the best thing they could do. I think Gilbert screws up the chemistry of the first unit, which is playing extremely well behind Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. And, after watching Ben Wallace stink it up last year with the Bulls, I see no reason as to why he'll start trying this time around. It's really tough for me to go against Lebron James, because he's so ridiculously good (and only 1.5 years older than me), but I think I'm going to have to in this case. The Wizards have been playing fairly well coming into the playoffs, while Cleveland has just been like...sputtering.
Verdict: Wizards in 6

Conference Semifinals

#1 Boston vs. #5 Washington

I love this match-up. The Wizards have beaten the Celtics 3 times this year, more than any other team can claim. These wins include one game last week, and one game in Boston on Jan 14. Why is this important? Because Boston has lost only 5 games at home this year (the second best home record to the Utah Jazz's 31-4). But, I think Washington knows something that everyone else doesn't. This is a huge gamble, but I'm thinking that Washington takes one of the first two games in Boston, both games in Washington, then closing out in Game 6. Thus...
Verdict: Washington in 6

#2 Detroit vs #3 Orlando

I have no idea what to make of this. This is really up in the air because no one knows which Orlando is gonna show up: the hot shooting, streaky Magic, or the bricking feeble Magic. When the 3's are falling, Orlando is unstoppable, because no one in this league can guard Dwight Howard one on one. But, if there's one team that can make Orlando shoot poorly, it's Detroit. Plus, Detroit has so much playoff experience versus the relatively young Magic team.
Verdict: Detroit in 5

Conference Finals

#5 Washington vs. #2 Detroit

Detroit beat down Washington by 28 on April 11 with their reserves. Sorry Washington, but they only seem to have the death touch when it comes to the Celtics. Easy pick here.
Verdict: Detroit in 5

Western Conference
First Round

#1 Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) vs. #8 Denver (50-32)

Notice the difference in wins: The Lakers have only 7 more than Denver, versus Boston having 29 more than Atlanta... but, the Lakers will dominate this series nonetheless. There were a couple teams in the West that the Nuggets would have a genuine chance at beating, but the Lakers are not one of them. The Lakers have too many offensive weapons, and unlike the Nuggets, the Lakers can actually play defense for stretches.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 4

#2 New Orleans (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas (51-31)

All this talk about Chris Paul not having any playoff experience is nonsensical. Paul will come in, play these games like they were any other game, take Jason Kidd to school, and look good doing it. Dirk Nowitski has been playing well for the Mavs, but they're not the team they were last year or the year before. Many of their key role players are not having stellar years (Josh Howard, Jason Terry), and the addition of Jason Kidd has made them worse on defense and marginally better on offense. Plus, Chris Paul is going to make Jason Kidd look old, slow, and broken by the end of this series.
Verdict: New Orleans in 6

#3 San Antonio (56-26) vs, #6 Phoenix (55-27)

I'll admit, I was one of the people who was like "WTF" when Phoenix traded Shawn Marion for Shaq. But, this trade has been a major success (if only for the next couple seasons, before Steve Nash and Shaq get REALLY old, as opposed to just old). The main reason why is because Amare Stoudamire now has a new best friend, both in the locker room and on the court. His numbers since the Shaq trade are through the roof, and I think it's not only due to O'Neal's morale boosting personality, but also to the fact that Amare no longer has to play defense ("Thank God," says Amare). Other than that, the Spurs look old. Really old. And even though I just wrote an article about the good luck charm that is Robert Horry, I can't see the Spurs beating a Suns team that has taken them down in their past two meetings.
Verdict: Phoenix in 6

#4 Utah (54-28) vs. #5 Houston (55-27)

Some of you may be saying "dude you messed up, Houston has a better record so they should be seeded higher." Sadly, such is not the case my friends (cause I never mess up ;) ). Check out the NBA playoffs format to see for yourself. Houston does have homecourt advantage (yea, it's messed up), and yet, still has no hope. Why? Because Houston has one offensive play. It's called, "Give the ball to Tracy McGrady, watch him drive, and either put up a terrible shot or turn the ball over." Sorry Houston, you've got nothing else. Your entire offense runs through McGrady, and that's a recipe for disaster against an excellently coached Jazz team.
Verdict: Utah in 6

Conference Semifinals

#1 Los Angeles vs. #4 Utah

Unlike Houston, LA actually has quite a few offensive weapons, probably more than any other team in the league. That and LA has enough bodies to handle both Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. Couple that with a Lakers bench that is somewhere between 3 and 5000 times better than Utah's, and you have a series.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 6

#2 New Orleans vs. #6 Phoenix

New Orleans has beaten Phoenix all 4 times they've played this season. However, only one of these games was after the Shaq trade, and that was before Phoenix found their rhythm with Shaq. The biggest x-factor will be if Shaq can keep up with Tyson Chandler. Chris Paul and Chandler like to throw a lot of alley-oops, and O'Neal can't really jump anymore, so Shaq will have to move his feet and get in Chandler's way. Plus with Marion gone, a lot of the Sun's help defense has disintegrated, so much of this series will come down the defensve match-ups, one on one. And I don't like Phoenix's chances with the likes of Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Amare Stoudamire being three of the guys called upon to play high-energy defense for long stretches.
Verdict: New Orleans in 7

Conference Finals
#1 Los Angeles vs. #2 New Orleans

LA has come into the playoffs with a head full of steam, winning 8 of their last 9 games. By this time, the Lakers will have Andrew Bynum coming off the bench, providing a huge lift for their already enormously talented second unit. Too much talent and too much Kobe will be all that keeps Chris Paul and gang from going to the Finals.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 6

NBA Finals

Los Angeles vs. Detroit

Detroit has home court in this case, since they have a better record, but I don't think that will come into play as much as everyone thinks. Detroit doesn't really have as much of a home court advantage as say... Utah or Boston, simply because their crowds aren't as into it. Maybe because it's been the same 6-7 guys on the team for 6 years now, and even the Pistons fans are starting to think that this is getting a little old. This is a rematch of the 2004 NBA Finals, where the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (with Gary Payton and Karl Malone!) got raped, hard and fast by a young hungry Pistons team. 5 years later, those young hungry Pistons are now old and full, and will not be able to take down the young Lakers with Kobe Bryant, who by this late in the postseason may be full-blown rabid with his desire for a championship. Thus, while fully frothing at the mouth, I expect Kobe to lead the Lakers in a series of crazy one-man performances (be on the look out for some 40 point games and 20 point quarters) and take home the title.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 6