CapTalk: Portland, An Exercise In Frugality

As everyone already knows, the Portland Trailblazers have possibly the most promising, young roster in the NBA. They have a young emerging core of Brandon Roy (going into his 3rd year), LaMarcus Aldridge (3rd year), and Greg Oden (rookie, due to his season-ending injury last year), and have been able to surround them with a surplus of young talent, including rookies Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Sergio Rodriguez, along with Steve Blake (6th year), Travis Outlaw (6th year), and Martell Webster (4th year). Combine these guys with Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, and Joel Przybilla, and you have the most solid 12-man rotation in all of basketball. However, the most surprising element of this young talent is that the Blazers will have a two year window (2009-10 and 2010-11) where they will have around $54 million in total salary.

As I cited in my last post, the luxury tax level will be a little above $71 million next year. Extrapolating by comparing the increase from last year to this, I can estimate that the salary cap will be somewhere around $72-$73 million come 2009-10. and a little more than $1 million larger in 2010-11. However, as of right now, barring any extensions/new contracts, the Blazers will have about $53 million in total salary in 2009-10 and only $34 million in 2010-2011. This means that they will have about $20 million free to spend next summer, and about $40 million to spend in the all-important summer of 2010, when Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, among others, all become free agents.

This of course comes with some caveats: the Blazers will extend some old contracts between now and 2009. The team would be stupid to let Steve Blake, their only true proven point guard, walk when he's working for only $4.5 mil this year. Assuming he comes back at less than $6 mil, I would jump if I were the Blazers. Secondly, it would be more than stupid for the Blazers to extend merely qualifying offers to Martell Webster, Channing Frye, and Ike Diogu. When someone becomes a restricted free agent, they get assigned a cap hold by the league, which basically decides how much they count against the salary cap even if they remain unsigned and unwaived. This is especially limiting because the cap hold is generally two to three times that player's current salary.

Assuming in 2009, Portland picks up team options on Roy, Oden, Aldridge, and Sergio Rodriguez, they will still have to decide what to do with Frye, Webster, and Diogu. Say they let Frye and Diogu walk, and resign Webster at 1.5 times his old salary. Thus the cap holds on all three of them which would have been between $26 and $39 million gets reduced to $7.5 million for Webster. Next, let's assume that Portland decides to hold onto one of either Travis Outlaw or Rudy Fernandez (they play similar positions with similar styles involving being excellent slashers and fair jump shooters, while playing little defense). Fernandez would be much cheaper, considering he makes less than $2 mil a year, while Outlaw makes $4 mil a year and will be looking for a lucrative extension.

Thus, we're left with Outlaw, Frye, and Diogu off the books. There's some speculation on Blazer's Edge about the Blazers trading these three for Tayshaun Prince, who would be perfect in their system. If Outlaw, Frye, and Diogu all continue to improve, I can't see how Detroit doesn't make this trade. Detroit is on the verge of dying of old age (most of their core is over 30) and they'll be reloading by the end of 2009. Naturally this trade is a no-brainer for Portland, because their only hole is at SF, where they need someone who defends the perimeter and can make 3's, both of which Prince can do and a whole lot more. This still leaves the Blazers some $20 mil below the luxury tax level in 2009. Let's assume that Brandon Roy signs a contract extension for $15 mil a year (same as Chris Paul), and Lamarcus Aldridge also resigns for $15 mil (a little less than Elton Brand, more than Andrew Bogut), that still leaves the Blazers with about $10 mil to throw at a new free agent, say, Shawn Marion in case the aforementioned Prince trade doesn't work out. Or Lamar Odom. Or Mike Bibby. Or even Allen frickin Iverson. Not saying any of them would take $10 mil a year, but there are lots of possibilities. Imagine if Roy or Aldridge take one for the team and sign a below-value contract. Then there'd be lots of money to go around.

Overall, the key to the Blazers current flexibility are the fact that their players are signed on the cheap as of now, and won't be able to ask for a raise for a couple years. However, hopefully by the time they get around to signing extensions, they'll have earned them.