CapTalk: Portland, An Exercise In Frugality

As everyone already knows, the Portland Trailblazers have possibly the most promising, young roster in the NBA. They have a young emerging core of Brandon Roy (going into his 3rd year), LaMarcus Aldridge (3rd year), and Greg Oden (rookie, due to his season-ending injury last year), and have been able to surround them with a surplus of young talent, including rookies Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Sergio Rodriguez, along with Steve Blake (6th year), Travis Outlaw (6th year), and Martell Webster (4th year). Combine these guys with Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, and Joel Przybilla, and you have the most solid 12-man rotation in all of basketball. However, the most surprising element of this young talent is that the Blazers will have a two year window (2009-10 and 2010-11) where they will have around $54 million in total salary.

As I cited in my last post, the luxury tax level will be a little above $71 million next year. Extrapolating by comparing the increase from last year to this, I can estimate that the salary cap will be somewhere around $72-$73 million come 2009-10. and a little more than $1 million larger in 2010-11. However, as of right now, barring any extensions/new contracts, the Blazers will have about $53 million in total salary in 2009-10 and only $34 million in 2010-2011. This means that they will have about $20 million free to spend next summer, and about $40 million to spend in the all-important summer of 2010, when Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, among others, all become free agents.

This of course comes with some caveats: the Blazers will extend some old contracts between now and 2009. The team would be stupid to let Steve Blake, their only true proven point guard, walk when he's working for only $4.5 mil this year. Assuming he comes back at less than $6 mil, I would jump if I were the Blazers. Secondly, it would be more than stupid for the Blazers to extend merely qualifying offers to Martell Webster, Channing Frye, and Ike Diogu. When someone becomes a restricted free agent, they get assigned a cap hold by the league, which basically decides how much they count against the salary cap even if they remain unsigned and unwaived. This is especially limiting because the cap hold is generally two to three times that player's current salary.

Assuming in 2009, Portland picks up team options on Roy, Oden, Aldridge, and Sergio Rodriguez, they will still have to decide what to do with Frye, Webster, and Diogu. Say they let Frye and Diogu walk, and resign Webster at 1.5 times his old salary. Thus the cap holds on all three of them which would have been between $26 and $39 million gets reduced to $7.5 million for Webster. Next, let's assume that Portland decides to hold onto one of either Travis Outlaw or Rudy Fernandez (they play similar positions with similar styles involving being excellent slashers and fair jump shooters, while playing little defense). Fernandez would be much cheaper, considering he makes less than $2 mil a year, while Outlaw makes $4 mil a year and will be looking for a lucrative extension.

Thus, we're left with Outlaw, Frye, and Diogu off the books. There's some speculation on Blazer's Edge about the Blazers trading these three for Tayshaun Prince, who would be perfect in their system. If Outlaw, Frye, and Diogu all continue to improve, I can't see how Detroit doesn't make this trade. Detroit is on the verge of dying of old age (most of their core is over 30) and they'll be reloading by the end of 2009. Naturally this trade is a no-brainer for Portland, because their only hole is at SF, where they need someone who defends the perimeter and can make 3's, both of which Prince can do and a whole lot more. This still leaves the Blazers some $20 mil below the luxury tax level in 2009. Let's assume that Brandon Roy signs a contract extension for $15 mil a year (same as Chris Paul), and Lamarcus Aldridge also resigns for $15 mil (a little less than Elton Brand, more than Andrew Bogut), that still leaves the Blazers with about $10 mil to throw at a new free agent, say, Shawn Marion in case the aforementioned Prince trade doesn't work out. Or Lamar Odom. Or Mike Bibby. Or even Allen frickin Iverson. Not saying any of them would take $10 mil a year, but there are lots of possibilities. Imagine if Roy or Aldridge take one for the team and sign a below-value contract. Then there'd be lots of money to go around.

Overall, the key to the Blazers current flexibility are the fact that their players are signed on the cheap as of now, and won't be able to ask for a raise for a couple years. However, hopefully by the time they get around to signing extensions, they'll have earned them.

CapTalk: The Lakers and The Luxury Tax

In the NBA, it is common knowledge (and common sense) that some markets are just bigger than others. According to Forbes, the LA Lakers are valued at $560 million, ranked 2nd in the NBA in terms of franchise value (behind the ailing NY Knicks) in 2007. "Good for the them, they still didn't win the championship last year," you may say. This is true. However, having such a high market value gives the Lakers a noticeable advantage over other teams: their tolerancy level with regard to the luxury tax. As I explained in my last post, the luxury tax is calculated as such:

Total Team Salary - Luxury Tax Level = Luxury Tax Payment

Thus, for each dollar a team is over the luxury tax level, they pay two dollars, one which is already going to their players and one to the League, which then distributes the money to all the franchises that are under the luxury tax (a great boon for teams such as San Antonio, which classically enjoy running their team as just below salary cap level, thus giving them a several million dollar swing in overall revenue).

During the 2007-08 season, the luxury tax level was set at $67,865,000 (TrueHoop), with the Lakers being over the cap by $5,131,757. One might think that this is a lot of money, but the Lakers payment was almost one-fourth that of the NY Knicks and the Dallas Mavericks (both around $19 million). Looking ahead, the NBA announced that the salary cap for the 2008-09 season will be $71,150,000, with the Lakers salary (assuming they make no roster cuts) will be $82,305,701, giving them a luxury tax payment of around $11 million, a huge increase from last year. This is mostly due to a full-year of Pau Gasol and the new contract received by Sasha Vujacic.

However, there are two large variables that may affect these numbers in the coming years. First is whether the Lakers wish to retain Lamar Odom, who is currently making a cool $14 mil as the Lakers 4th best player, and the second is how large of an extension they give to Andrew Bynum.

Purely from a basketball stand-point, if someone were to ask, "do you want to keep Lamar Odom," I'm pretty sure Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak would say, "hell yeah," or something along those lines (maybe a more business-like line, such as "why yes!") However, with the twin towers of Bynum and Gasol taking up the power forward and center spots in the lineup, Lamar Odom is relegated to either starting at small forward or coming off the bench as either a center or PF.

Both of these propositions come with negatives. If Lamar starts at small forward, his best qualities become nullified: he has excellent speed and ball-handling skills for a guy who's 6'10", and he's an excellent rebounder. Starting at small forward would cause Lamar to be guarded by a smaller player, negating his speed and slashing ability, and take him further away from the basket, where most of the rebounds will be gobbled up by Bynum or Gasol. If Lamar comes off the bench as center or PF (most likely PF), he will have to be focused and ready to come into the game cold and contribute immediately (something which he has had problems with in the past). Plus, Lamar is making far too much money to be on the bench playing only 20-25 minutes a game (which will be all he gets with Bynum and Gasol ahead of him).

I have a tendency to lean towards the second option, with Lamar playing some sort of point forward role. Given that his contract expires this year, and he comes back at a discount (somewhat unlikely, but possible), which let's say will be around $12 mil, it will lessen the blow the Lakers take in terms of luxury tax. However, I do think shedding Lamar's contract in a trade or free agency will be a mistake, considering how well Lamar played last year.

Next is the contract extension of Andrew Bynum. Bynum will be making a little less than $3 mil this year, obviously way below his market value (with last year's averages of 13 pts, 10 rbs, and 2 blocks per game). Given that Elton Brand just signed a new contract that tops at $18 mil a year and Emeka Okafor signed an extension that tops at $14 mil a year, you can expect Bynum to be somewhere between there. Let's assume a round $15 mil per year over 5 years for Bynum as an extension. This will put the Lakers at somewhere around $30-$35 mil over the cap next year. Needless to say, this is a massive amount of money.

Honestly, I do not think the Lakers will be able to keep Odom long-term unless he takes a massive pay-cut. They are just too far over the salary cap, and their only short-term source of relief will be when Odom's contract expires next summer. An interesting point of intrigue comes in the form of Kobe Bryant's player option after next year. Bryant can choose to opt-out of his current contract and sign a new deal after next year. If Bryant were to take a marginal pay-cut (say $5-$8 mil), this would go a long way toward keeping Odom. Yet, there's really no end in sight for the Lakers.

With the contracts of Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, and Chris Mihm expiring in the near future, the Lakers will have to extend deals to these key role players as well, probably pushing them further over the luxury tax level. However, without any financial ramifications, the Lakers are built to win, right now. If they want a championship, though, they may have to hurry. Those luxury tax bills will add up quickly, even for the Lakers.

The main problem children for the Lakers are the contracts of Vladimir Radmanovich (VladRad, as I like to call him) making a cool $6 mil a year to shoot three's, give up lay-ups, and sit on the bench in crunch time, and Luke Walton (or SonofBill, as he is often called on Forum Blue and Gold, the most insightful Lakers blog I've found), who signed a lucrative 6-year, $30 mil deal and promptly decided to start sucking again. The worst part is that both of their contracts are untradeable; they're too long and too costly for such little return in play.

For all their salary cap problems, the Lakers are still possibly the best positioned team in the NBA to be successful for the foreseeable future (the other being the Portland Trailblazers....*sniff*, I smell another blog post coming soon). But, championship teams have been derailed by the salary cap before, and it wouldn't be surprising if the salary cap cut the Lakers contention window a little short.

CapTalk: My Dream Job

Edit: I've decided to turn this post into a new running column, "Cap Talk," dedicated to the finances of the NBA.

Another Edit: I had to correct some mathematical errors and errors in describing the cap. This was before I had done enough reading to truly understand some nuances of the cap. Please forgive the errors.

For those of you who know me, you know that I have few very strong passions in life. These (in no particular order) are: anime, finance, mathematics, irrational thoughts, high-fructose corn-syrup, racist jokes, and basketball. The past couple weeks have really been a large mish-mash of all of those put together: catching up on my anime, applying to full time jobs, working as a math CA/starting math classes, trying to get one of my friend's laid instead of myself, eating various overly-sweetened snack products, managing to insult four ethnic minorities in the span of ten seconds, and spending a lot of excess time looking at the salaries for various NBA teams as the off-season winds down.

The first few seem pretty reasonable for me in any given week. However, the last one is seemingly a little off; most of the off-season's trading action in the NBA is over, and the regular season isn't starting for a few weeks. That's when I realized that all effort I have exhibited towards getting full-time employment in Financial Company X has been completely misguided. I've thought all along that I wanted to go into finance, into business, the corporate world, thinking that once I got there I would know what I truly wanted. Yet the more I think about it, I realize that even my greatest financial dream (running my own billion dollar hedge fund), does not even come close (both in feasibility and enjoyment) to what I would truly love to do: be an NBA Business Analyst.

"WTF is that?" you may ask. Well an NBA team is the same as any other business, they have compensation and operating costs as well as massive profits. They just happen to do it selling basketball paraphernalia and tickets to sporting events involving (mostly black) men throwing a rubber ball around a hardwood floor. Having interned at Legg Mason last summer where all I did was expense analysis, I find that this would be an amazing outlet for my skills and experience.

Even though I know I would inevitably have to start out analyzing the cost-to-benefit ratio of Kobe Bryant jerseys vs. Kobe Bryant hats, my dream would be to one day be able to focus on what I truly enjoy: analyzing the NBA trade possibilities with respect to the salary cap.

Those of you who don't know the NBA, it has a soft-cap, meaning that any team that spends over a league-set amount on player salaries has to pay the difference between what they are paying their team and the luxury tax level. This is called the luxury tax. In other words, they have to pay:

Player Salaries - Luxury Tax Level = Luxury Tax Payment

The repercussions of this is that they are effectively paying two dollars for every one dollar they are over the cap. Some teams (Lakers, Knicks, Celtics) can afford to do this because of their excessive profit margins. However, teams in smaller markets (ie Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Sonics... er, Thunder) will be unable to pay such a penalty. This naturally gives teams from larger markets an advantage. However, there are several benefits to being below the salary cap: You can sign free agents (those that make you go over the salary cap) without impunity, you can take on extra salary when trading for players, and the most obvious, you save money. But the true skill to manipulating the cap is being able to maximize the amount of talent on your team for the amount of salary you're paying.

Now players are coming and going non-stop, but this isn't half the problem. Most of the problem comes from players demanding pay-raises/contract extensions. The poster-child for this dilemma shall be the Summer of 2010, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, and a multitude of other superstars will be opting out of their rookie extension contracts and entering the free agent market. This coming season, Lebron James shall make approximately $14 million. However, given his level of talent, he is obviously worth more than that, probably upwards of $20-25 million per year. In case you didn't know, there is a very large difference between $14 million and $25 million. Cleveland's total salary for next season will be somewhere around $85 million, which will be something like $20-$25 million above the projected cap. Their dilemma lies in how much they are willing to pay in luxury taxes in order to keep James.

God, just writing about this stuff makes me cream my pants. All right, not quite, but it's close. Very close. I have a feeling it will be extremely difficult, but if this whole finance thing doesn't pan out/interest me enough, I will most definitely turn toward my new-found passion: using my math/finance knowledge on my favorite sport, basketball.

2008 NBA Playoffs: 2nd Round Predictions

(See my 2008 NBA Playoffs Predictions, and my 1st round results post.)

Well the first round is (mostly) over, so it's time for my revised second round predictions (given that some of my first rounders were wrong...). Just a little disclaimer before we continue: I do not guarantee accuracy nor credibility, but I do guarantee selective memory in touting my correct picks and conveniently forgetting those that I get wrong. With that, on to the 2nd round...

East

#1 Boston vs. #4 Cleveland

This is assuming that Boston wins Game 7 vs Atlanta, which I fully expect them to considering they've handed the Hawks three 20 point beatdowns in Boston during this series. Even so, because the Celtics have gone the distance against the Hawks, I have absolutely no confidence with them against Lebron James and co. If they can't stop Joe Johnson, they won't stop Lebron. Boston may come out like the real Boston (the one from the regular season that dominated and won 66 games) and make me look stupid, but I'm not betting against Lebron anymore.

Prediction: Cleveland in 6

#2 Detroit vs. #3 Orlando

Unlike Boston, I think Detroit has actually pulled it together. They played pretty well, beating down the 76ers in the last 2 games, closing out the series in 6. And although Orlando did beat Toronto in 5, it is Toronto... The Raptors didn't have the size nor the strength to deal with Dwight Howard, but the Pistons do have a few big men that they'll throw at him to slow him down. I also think that Detroit's perimeter defense will be able to shut down the Magic's three point shooting. With those two things down (Howard, 3-pointers), the Magic really have nothing else to go to.

Prediction: Detroit in 6

West

#1 Los Angeles vs. #4 Utah

Utah played a pretty good series vs. Houston, but they did allow T-Mac to get 40 points in the close-out game despite him having to play 1 on 5. Plus, with Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko having almost non-existent postseasons, the Lakers will be able to take this one with Kobe Bryant again leading the way (and fresh off his MVP award...?).

Prediction: LA in 6

#2 New Orleans vs. #3 San Antonio

God, this is the hardest one to pick. New Orleans is coming off a great series, absolutely dominating Dallas in the first round (causing Dallas to fire their coach). Yet, San Antonio is also coming off a great series, pounding the crap out of Phoenix in 4 out of 5 games, 1 of them a classic (Game 1), 2 huge beatdowns (2 and 3), Phoenix's last gasp (4), and the closeout (5). This one's so hard to pick because it's not as if we can use the regular season to compare the Spurs to the Hornets (because the Spurs just don't give a crap during the regular season, obviously...). I have a feeling this is going to come back and bite me in the ass, but I'm going to pick youth over experience, and go with Chris Paul and the Hornets. Hopefully Robert Horry gets hurt (so he won't be able to put Chris Paul into the stands like he did to Steve Nash).

Prediction: New Orleans in 7

...

God, these playoffs turned out gay. Whoever went chalk with their picks got them all correct... Western Conference most competitive ever my ass. Till the next round, where I'll probably tout my correct picks this round, and casually forget/brush-off my wrong picks.

2008 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round Prediction Results

Well...for those of you who read my 2008 NBA playoffs picks, they generally fell into 3 distinctly different categories: the ones I got entirely correct, the ones I got mostly correct, and the ones I got completely wrong. With that, let's have a little recap.

Predictions that were entirely correct:

East

#3 Orlando vs. #6 Toronto
Prediction: Orlando in 5
Result: Orlando in 5

Orlando took the first two games with ease, as expected. After those first two games, I thought perhaps that Orlando might sweep, but the Raptors came back in Toronto as expected with a good effort due to home court advantage. However, Orlando easily took the next two, as the combined strength of Dwight Howard and the Magic's 3-point shooting were too much for the streaky-shooting Raptors (despite a monster 39 point, 15 rebound game from Chris Bosh in game 4.).

West

#1 Los Angeles vs. #8 Denver
Prediction: LA in 4
Result: LA in 4

Many of ESPN's experts picked this one to be the Lakers in 5 or 6 games, but I knew better. The Lakers simply had too many offensive weapons, with both Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol having a monster series. Plus, the Lakers ability to play occasional defense made all the difference between them and high-scoring Nuggets. Of course, the Nuggets basically imploding in a couple games helped, but that was sort of expected given their team make-up and abundance of tattoos.

#4 Utah vs. #5 Houston
Prediction: Utah in 6
Result: Utah leads 3-2 as of 11:45, 05-02-08 (*Update*: Utah won pretty big, building a huge lead going into the 4th quarter. So Utah takes the series in6, as I predicted ;) ).

Game 6 is going as I'm typing this, but the Jazz are up by 16 now with less than 6 minutes to go in the first half, and they're at home, so I'll just assume they're going to win (sorry Houston). Now that I think about it, I really shouldn't have given the Rockets two wins, given my analysis of their only play (Tracy McGrady dribble/turnover). But, the return of Rafer Alston really helped T-Mac, and the Rockets were able to pull out two wins, one extremely impressive victory in Utah, and an enormous 95-69 beatdown in Game 5 when down 3-1. But, T-Mac is basically alone in this series, and him carrying them this far has been an amazing achievement. I feel bad for the guy, because he's infamous for going out in the first round of the playoffs, but most of the time it really hasn't been his fault. (UPDATE: wow, in the two minutes I've used to type this, the Rockets have managed to pull within 9, and T-Mac already has 24 points with 4 minutes to go in the 1st half! I may have to change this prediction later...)

Predictions that were mostly correct:

East

#2 Detroit vs. #7 Philadelphia
Prediction: Detroit in 5
Result: Detroit in 6

I expected Philadelphia to have at least one solid game on their home floor, but I didn't expect them to take the first game in Detroit, at all. But, the Pistons finally came alive after Game 3, and took it to the 76ers with 2 impressive wins, one in Philadelphia, the other at home winning by 17. Detroit was simply too good for the overachieving 76ers. Sorry Philly, better luck next year...

West

#2 New Orleans vs. #7 Dallas
Prediction: New Orleans in 6
Result: New Orleans in 5

I'm quite proud of this one, mostly because many of ESPN's "experts" picked Dallas to win, most attributing it to their "playoff experience." But, all the smart analysts (aka those that don't appear on TV), actually know enough about basketball to realize that playoff experience is a joke when matching up against a quicker, smarter, better coached, more efficient basketball team. And as I predicted, Chris Paul made Jason Kidd look like a retiree, averaging 24 points, 12 assists, and 2 steals a game, including a monster 32 point, 17 assist Game 2 and a triple-double in the decisive Game 5.

Predictions that I got completely wrong:

East

#1 Boston vs. #8 Atlanta
Prediction: Boston in 4
Result: Tied 3-3 as of 05-02-08

I completely did not see this coming. Atlanta has played with so much heart, and Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith have all been amazing for the Hawks in this series. Plus, Boston has played with a lot less intensity than I expected, and this causes me to seriously doubt their potential to win the championship this year (or even beat Cleveland in the 2nd round). I predict that Boston will win Game 7, simply because of their home court advantage, where they've pretty much taken it to the Hawks at home. But still, great series from Atlanta. Their future looks very bright indeed.

#4 Cleveland vs. #5 Washington
Prediction: Washington in 6
Result: Cleveland in 6

I bet against Lebron James, and I paid the price. Washington didn't show half the toughness or defensive intensity that I expected out of them, and they allowed James to basically beat the crap out of them all by himself. Plus, the return of Gilbert Arenas seemed to hurt a lot of players chemistry, especially Caron Butler, who had a couple good games, but also a couple of real stinkers. Antawn Jamison was also extremely quiet in this series, not being nearly as dominating as he needed to be for the Wizards to win.

West

#3 San Antonio vs. #6 Phoenix
Prediction: Phoenix in 6
Result: San Antonio in 5

Man, the Spurs are such a-holes. They lie in wait, biding their time until the playoffs, then they just magically turn it on. It's almost as if the regular season is just their stretching and warm-ups, and the playoffs are the actual game. Game 1 was amazing, with the game going to double OT on threes by Michael Finley, and of all people, Tim Duncan. After that, it was all down-hill for the Suns, who couldn't hold a lead nor keep a rhythm. Some blame this on Hack-a-Shaq, used by Greg Popovich (coach of the Spurs) to discombobulate Phoenix's highly rhythm oriented offense. But man, I can't believe the Spurs are this good despite being so old. Maybe it's the return of Robert Horry? ;)

...

I'll save my revised second round picks for tomorrow, just because I'm tired and need some time to think about my predictions before actually explaining them :P.

NBA: Where the 2008 Playoffs Happen

And so begins the craziest NBA playoffs in decades. As of yesterday, the playoff match-ups were set, and now its time to get down to business of picking the winners. Some of the winners will be obvious; others, not so much. And while I do not guarantee accuracy nor credibility, I do want to get my picks on record (ya know, just in case they turn out right. Then I can shove it in everyone's face. That's the goal.). For those of you who don't know, each series is best of 7, so if one team gets 4 wins, they advance. Whoever has the better record has home court advantage, with games being played 2 home - 2 away- 1 home - 1 away - 1 home until the Finals, when it switches to 2 home - 3 away - 2 home. With that, let's get to the games...

Let's start in the Eastern Conference, because that one's easier...

Eastern Conference
First Round

#1 Boston (66-16) vs. #8 Atlanta (37-45)

Um....nothing really to say here. If Boston loses even one game, I think Kevin Garnett may have a psychotic reaction. And the Celtics really don't want to see that. That and the Hawks kinda suck. And Boston won 29 more games than Atlanta this season (there are 82 games in all).
Verdict: Boston in 4

#2 Detroit (59-23) vs. #7 Philadelphia (40-42)

The Pistons come into the playoffs with the second best record in the East, but they've lost their past two games to Philadelphia in March and April. Albeit the Pistons didn't really try for March and April, but the fact that they gave up 100 points to Philadelphia is cause for concern. However, Philadelphia is mostly a fast-pace team, relying on fast breaks and hot shooting streaks to win games, and in a 7 game series against one of the slowest, most deliberate teams in the league, I doubt that Philadelphia will be able to play at the pace in which they enjoy so much success.
Verdict: Detroit in 5

#3 Orlando (52-30) vs. #6 Toronto (41-41)

God I hate Toronto...every year I think they're gonna have a monster season at the beginning, then they either get injured and/or play really shitty. This season has been a good mix of both. As for Orlando, a lot of people say they rely a lot on the 3, but why wouldn't you when you have Dwight Howard in the middle? Howard is (period) the most athletic big man in the league, and containing him is difficult for any team despite Howard's lack of low-post prowess (he relies so much on his athleticism as opposed to skills and maneuvers). Plus, Toronto been playing especially crappy as of late, so I don't see any reason why they would give the Magic any trouble.
Verdict: Orlando in 5

#4 Cleveland (45-37) vs. #5 Washington (43-39)

Man, I really don't like this Cavs team... and I really like this Washington team. Gilbert Arenas coming off the bench is by far the best thing they could do. I think Gilbert screws up the chemistry of the first unit, which is playing extremely well behind Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. And, after watching Ben Wallace stink it up last year with the Bulls, I see no reason as to why he'll start trying this time around. It's really tough for me to go against Lebron James, because he's so ridiculously good (and only 1.5 years older than me), but I think I'm going to have to in this case. The Wizards have been playing fairly well coming into the playoffs, while Cleveland has just been like...sputtering.
Verdict: Wizards in 6

Conference Semifinals

#1 Boston vs. #5 Washington

I love this match-up. The Wizards have beaten the Celtics 3 times this year, more than any other team can claim. These wins include one game last week, and one game in Boston on Jan 14. Why is this important? Because Boston has lost only 5 games at home this year (the second best home record to the Utah Jazz's 31-4). But, I think Washington knows something that everyone else doesn't. This is a huge gamble, but I'm thinking that Washington takes one of the first two games in Boston, both games in Washington, then closing out in Game 6. Thus...
Verdict: Washington in 6

#2 Detroit vs #3 Orlando

I have no idea what to make of this. This is really up in the air because no one knows which Orlando is gonna show up: the hot shooting, streaky Magic, or the bricking feeble Magic. When the 3's are falling, Orlando is unstoppable, because no one in this league can guard Dwight Howard one on one. But, if there's one team that can make Orlando shoot poorly, it's Detroit. Plus, Detroit has so much playoff experience versus the relatively young Magic team.
Verdict: Detroit in 5

Conference Finals

#5 Washington vs. #2 Detroit

Detroit beat down Washington by 28 on April 11 with their reserves. Sorry Washington, but they only seem to have the death touch when it comes to the Celtics. Easy pick here.
Verdict: Detroit in 5

Western Conference
First Round

#1 Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) vs. #8 Denver (50-32)

Notice the difference in wins: The Lakers have only 7 more than Denver, versus Boston having 29 more than Atlanta... but, the Lakers will dominate this series nonetheless. There were a couple teams in the West that the Nuggets would have a genuine chance at beating, but the Lakers are not one of them. The Lakers have too many offensive weapons, and unlike the Nuggets, the Lakers can actually play defense for stretches.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 4

#2 New Orleans (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas (51-31)

All this talk about Chris Paul not having any playoff experience is nonsensical. Paul will come in, play these games like they were any other game, take Jason Kidd to school, and look good doing it. Dirk Nowitski has been playing well for the Mavs, but they're not the team they were last year or the year before. Many of their key role players are not having stellar years (Josh Howard, Jason Terry), and the addition of Jason Kidd has made them worse on defense and marginally better on offense. Plus, Chris Paul is going to make Jason Kidd look old, slow, and broken by the end of this series.
Verdict: New Orleans in 6

#3 San Antonio (56-26) vs, #6 Phoenix (55-27)

I'll admit, I was one of the people who was like "WTF" when Phoenix traded Shawn Marion for Shaq. But, this trade has been a major success (if only for the next couple seasons, before Steve Nash and Shaq get REALLY old, as opposed to just old). The main reason why is because Amare Stoudamire now has a new best friend, both in the locker room and on the court. His numbers since the Shaq trade are through the roof, and I think it's not only due to O'Neal's morale boosting personality, but also to the fact that Amare no longer has to play defense ("Thank God," says Amare). Other than that, the Spurs look old. Really old. And even though I just wrote an article about the good luck charm that is Robert Horry, I can't see the Spurs beating a Suns team that has taken them down in their past two meetings.
Verdict: Phoenix in 6

#4 Utah (54-28) vs. #5 Houston (55-27)

Some of you may be saying "dude you messed up, Houston has a better record so they should be seeded higher." Sadly, such is not the case my friends (cause I never mess up ;) ). Check out the NBA playoffs format to see for yourself. Houston does have homecourt advantage (yea, it's messed up), and yet, still has no hope. Why? Because Houston has one offensive play. It's called, "Give the ball to Tracy McGrady, watch him drive, and either put up a terrible shot or turn the ball over." Sorry Houston, you've got nothing else. Your entire offense runs through McGrady, and that's a recipe for disaster against an excellently coached Jazz team.
Verdict: Utah in 6

Conference Semifinals

#1 Los Angeles vs. #4 Utah

Unlike Houston, LA actually has quite a few offensive weapons, probably more than any other team in the league. That and LA has enough bodies to handle both Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. Couple that with a Lakers bench that is somewhere between 3 and 5000 times better than Utah's, and you have a series.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 6

#2 New Orleans vs. #6 Phoenix

New Orleans has beaten Phoenix all 4 times they've played this season. However, only one of these games was after the Shaq trade, and that was before Phoenix found their rhythm with Shaq. The biggest x-factor will be if Shaq can keep up with Tyson Chandler. Chris Paul and Chandler like to throw a lot of alley-oops, and O'Neal can't really jump anymore, so Shaq will have to move his feet and get in Chandler's way. Plus with Marion gone, a lot of the Sun's help defense has disintegrated, so much of this series will come down the defensve match-ups, one on one. And I don't like Phoenix's chances with the likes of Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Amare Stoudamire being three of the guys called upon to play high-energy defense for long stretches.
Verdict: New Orleans in 7

Conference Finals
#1 Los Angeles vs. #2 New Orleans

LA has come into the playoffs with a head full of steam, winning 8 of their last 9 games. By this time, the Lakers will have Andrew Bynum coming off the bench, providing a huge lift for their already enormously talented second unit. Too much talent and too much Kobe will be all that keeps Chris Paul and gang from going to the Finals.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 6

NBA Finals

Los Angeles vs. Detroit

Detroit has home court in this case, since they have a better record, but I don't think that will come into play as much as everyone thinks. Detroit doesn't really have as much of a home court advantage as say... Utah or Boston, simply because their crowds aren't as into it. Maybe because it's been the same 6-7 guys on the team for 6 years now, and even the Pistons fans are starting to think that this is getting a little old. This is a rematch of the 2004 NBA Finals, where the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (with Gary Payton and Karl Malone!) got raped, hard and fast by a young hungry Pistons team. 5 years later, those young hungry Pistons are now old and full, and will not be able to take down the young Lakers with Kobe Bryant, who by this late in the postseason may be full-blown rabid with his desire for a championship. Thus, while fully frothing at the mouth, I expect Kobe to lead the Lakers in a series of crazy one-man performances (be on the look out for some 40 point games and 20 point quarters) and take home the title.
Verdict: Los Angeles in 6

The Robert Horry Theory

With the NBA regular season ending yesterday, the playoff matchups are set, and it's time to get down to the business of picking my winners...

...soon. Like tomorrow.

But first of all, a little expose on one of my (and Matt's) favorite NBA players: Robert Horry. Now, any regular person (non-NBA fan) or even only a casual NBA fan may not know who Robert Horry is. Here's a quick run-down of the important stuff.

Horry was drafted in '92 by the Houston Rockets with the 11th pick, and won championships with the Rockets' teams lead by Hakeem Olajuwon in 1994 and 1995. After a short-stop in Phoenix due to Houston's trading for Charles Barkley, Horry ended up on the Los Angeles Lakers in 1997. In his time with the Lakers, Horry won three more championships, in 2000, 2001, and 2002. After becoming a free-agent in 2003, Horry signed with the San Antonio Spurs, and won two more championships in 2005 and 2007. And that brings us up to the present, with Horry battling age and injury to help the Spurs attempt to win a second straight championship.

If you were counting, you would know that all together, Robert Horry has won 7 NBA championships. Seven. Now those who are not avid basketball fans may be like, "well what's so special about that." Here's a hint. Almost everybody in the world knows who Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson are. These three basketball legends of the mid-late 80's are considered in some circles to be the three greatest NBA players ever, but almost everyone in the NBA community acknowledges them as top 10 players. Yet, Robert Horry has won more championships than all of them (Jordan - 6, Magic - 5, Bird - 3). In fact, Robert Horry has won more championships than any player who did not play on the 1960's Celtics who won 11 championships in 13 years.

If that were not enough to amaze you, here are a list of facts supporting my Robert Horry Theory.

-Every single time a team with Robert Horry on it has made it to the NBA Finals, they have won the championship.
-Every single team that once had Robert Horry on it has yet to win a championship since losing Robert Horry (either via trade or free agency).
-Only members of the 1960's Celtics have more championships than Robert Horry, but the 1960's Celtics are the only teams to have players with a better record in the NBA Finals than Robert Horry (Horry is 7-0).

As such, the theory can be stated as such:

-If a team reaches the Finals and that team has Robert Horry, then that team will win the championship.

Notice that is different from, "if a team has Robert Horry, the team will win the finals." Notable exceptions to that case were in 2003 when the Horry's Lakers lost to the Spurs in the conference semifinals, and in 2006 when the Horry's Spurs lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the second round. Yet, because both of these losses were before the Finals, they do not conflict with the Robert Horry Theory as I have stated it.

Many people simply like to say that Robert Horry was just lucky. However, Horry had a notable number of game-winning shots on the road to winning many of his teams championships. These can be seen here. To commemorate one of these occasions, the band "Grand Incredible" wrote a song dedicated to Robert Horry's game-winning shot over the Sacramento Kings in the 2002 Western Conference Finals, seen below.

Tomorrow I'll probably write about my predictions, with the NBA Playoffs beginning on Saturday.