2009 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals

In case you missed it, here are my predictions for the conference semifinals, which links to all my earlier posts. Huzzah for a 4-0 round. Sadly no perfects, more on that in a moment.

All right, it's down to the wire, and now it's time to get serious. Picks time, and once again, I guarantee only that I will tout my wins and forget my losses.

#1 Los Angeles (65-17)
#2 Denver (54-28)
Los Angeles won the season series 3-1
First, a recap of the previous series'. Denver played much, much better than I expected, and Dallas played much, much worse than I expected, so Denver winning in 5 came as quite a surprise when Dallas was playing pretty good ball at the time. Similarly, Houston played much, much better than I expected, and LA played much, much than I expected, so the Lakers pulling it out in 7 games was quite a shock. That being said, in games 5 and 7, when the Lakers actually showed up, they simply dominated Houston, like they really should have throughout the entire series. Yet, it seems like they're content to simply flip the switch when they feel like, which is unsettling.

That being said, now it is time to look forward instead of backward. I think this series will be a lot more difficult than most Laker fans are anticipating, but if the Lakers turn it on, I really think they could easily sweep this series. If they don't, however, I can also see it going 7 games. It really depends on which Laker team shows up on any given night. Here are a few keys to the series:

1.) Offensive Rebounding
The twin headed 7-foot monster of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum should eat the Nuggets front line. Kenyon Martin is 6'9, Nene is a very dubious 6'11, and Birdman Andersen is 6'10. So long as both those guys work on the boards, LA should have an enormous rebounding advantage. If Pau Gasol can come out like he did in Game 7 against Houston and really dominate the glass, this Laker team is unstoppable. Likewise, if Denver can play LA to a draw on the boards, that should be considered a win for them.

2.) Bench Play
The Nuggets bench of Anthony Carter, Birdman Andersen, and JR Smith have absolutely obliterated opponents. The Lakers bench has to match their intensity if LA has any chance of winning this series, so that means Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic are going to have to step up. Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic will be especially important, as Walton will almost definitely draw the assignment of guarding Carmelo Anthony, who is literally a scoring machine, and Sasha Vujacic will have the uneviable task of covering JR Smith. If Sasha can shut down JR Smith he did to Von Wafer against Houston, the Lakers will win this series. Smith's shooting is so important to the Nuggets offense, as his bombing away threes really gives them momentum. Taking that momentum away will be critical, and Vujacic will be the key.

3.) Chauncey Billups
I would say Point Guards, but LA's point guard by committee group really can't measure up to Billups. However, it is important that Derek Fisher, Farmar, and Brown all body up to Chauncey and make sure he isn't able to bomb away from the three point line like he did against New Orleans. I think LA would almost prefer Chauncey getting in to the lane as opposed to bombing away from three, as LA plays the passing lanes very well and have very good help interior defense. If the Lakers PG's can play Billups to a draw, LA will walk through this series easily.

Denver is playing with a lot of energy and a lot of effort right now, so it is important for LA to match that intensity from the start, especially in Games 1 and 2. If the Nuggets manage to take either of the first two games in LA, like Houston did, the Lakers will not be able to pull it out. Denver is a very good home team, so it's important that LA hold serve if they want to win this series.

Overall, I could easily see this series being long, with home court dictating who wins in the end. So long as Denver doesn't have a massive meltdown, and LA doesn't give Denver a gift of one of the games in Staples Center in LA, this one goes the distance, going to LA due to homecourt.
Prediction: LA in 7

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#3 Orlando (59-23)
Orlando won the season series, 2-1
I was very impressed by Orlando's Game 7 win against Boston in Boston. Hedo Turkoglu hit some really tough shots, and Rashard Lewis really took advantage of whoever the Celtics through at him. Still, Cleveland has absolutely dominated these playoffs, winning every game by double figures. Yet, Cleveland played Detroit and Atlanta in their two series, who wouldn't even make the playoffs if they played in the Western Conference. That being said, Cleveland's lop-sided victories are a little bit misleading. Orlando really clobbered Cleveland late in the season, a 29-point whomping on April 3rd in Orlando, so it's not as if Orlando simply can't beat Cleveland. However, Cleveland is a different animal in the postseason when Lebron James plays more minutes and the Cavs rotation shortens. Much as I would love to pick the Magic to pull it out, I just can't see the Cavs and James losing, especially when the refs are basically allowing James to bull his way to the hoop whenever he wants. I think Orlando makes this one difficult, especially given that Orlando has beaten Cleveland in Orlando both times that they played in the regular season. Yet, James still gets the edge.
Prediction: Cleveland in 7