Why did Cleveland, the team with the best record in the NBA, arguably the best defense in the NBA, with the (arguably) best player in the NBA, lose to a Magic team that struggled to knock out a weak Sixers team and a corpse-like Boston team? Answer: Match-ups. This series, like the Orlando-Cleveland series, will again come down to match-ups at each position.
Point Guard
Starters: Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Backups: Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown vs. Anthony Johnson
Frankly, I think the starters in this match-up are pretty even. Alston and Fisher are both solid point guards, but neither is going to kill the opposing team unless the opposing team wants him to (like Cleveland literally begged Alston to shoot). Back-up, however, is where I think we have a slight advantage. Both Farmar and Brown are much, much faster and more athletic than the aging Johnson. That being said, our PG’s need to be disciplined enough to stay at home or be prepared to close out hard, because both Alston and Johnson can hit threes when left open.
Advantage: Even
Shooting Guard
Starters: Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Backups: Sasha Vujacic vs. Mickael Pietrus
Really, if I were in charge, the depth chart of the Magic would be reversed, with Pietrus starting and Lee coming off the bench, simply because Lee isn’t quite big enough to handle Kobe in the post and Pietrus is simply a better on-ball defender. That being said, I love, repeat, love Courtney Lee’s game. I have honestly yet to see him make a turnover, and all of his plays are simple, efficient, and always seem to be the right decision. I still don’t think either of the two can truly stop Kobe Bryant, but Pietrus proved himself to be a very capable stopper by holding Lebron down (in a relative sense) in the ECF. Still, Kobe is a very different player from Lebron, and if Pietrus gives Kobe as much space as he gave Lebron, Kobe will murder him with the mid-range shots. I’m not really so sure about Vujacic, though. While it is a big deal if he isn’t hitting his shots, I think it is even more imperative that he stays at home and makes sure neither of these guys starts stroking away from three. We’ve all seen how much Sasha over-helps; this is the one series where that should not be tolerated.
Advantage: Lakers
Small Forward
Starters: Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Backups: Luke Walton vs. Rashard Lewis
Hedo Turkoglu is really the only small forward that the Magic employ, although Lewis and Pietrus also take some time at small forward. The key to this match-up will be Trevor playing solid man defense against Turkoglu, especially not going for any of Turkoglu’s up-fakes. Turkoglu is a great decision-maker, as evidenced by his solid play against Cleveland, but his two patented moves are the drive and up-fake (a la Paul Pierce) and the drive and step-back three. Both Walton and Ariza should be able to cover Turkoglu effectively, especially after having to deal with Carmelo Anthony, who is easily the best pure scorer at his position. Overall, I think this series will turn on how much trouble Ariza and Walton give Turkoglu, and how much they punish Turkoglu for helping off them to double Kobe or Pau.
Advantage: Magic
Power Forward
Starters: Pau Gasol vs. Rashard Lewis
Backups: Lamar Odom vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Similar to Turkoglu, Lewis is really the only PF that the Magic employ, but as has been stated above, he and Pau both cause each other to have massive match-up problems. I really like Rashard Lewis’ game, with his almost automatic shooting stroke (courtesy of Ray Allen’s OCD infecting Lewis’ practice regimen while in Seattle), and his almost uncoverable pick and pop game with Turkoglu. That being said, Pau has to punish Lewis down-low. Hard. If Lewis is going to give us match-up problems on defense, we need to crush him for trying to defend Pau. In the low post, on the offensive boards, on the defensive boards, in transition, on the foul line, on the three point line, at half-court, everywhere Lewis goes, Pau needs to be beating him up. We’ll see how tough Lewis and his turd-like beard stand up to Pau’s pressure. While Lewis has the advantage on the perimeter, Pau definitely has the advantage inside, and it is the one advantage we will need to abuse the entire series. Odom, meanwhile, needs to keep Lewis in front of him. Lamar’s length should bother some of Lewis’ shots, but Lamar needs to abuse Lewis on the boards just as much as Gasol. If the Magic are goign to play Lewis, we need to exploit his weaknesses, not try and hide from them by trying to match-up on the perimeter. That plays right into the Magic’s hands.
Advantage: Lakers
Center
Starters: Andrew Bynum vs. Dwight Howard
Backups: Pau Gasol vs. Marcin Gortat
While Bynum will be the probable starter (PJ hates changing his starting line-up to match-up with other teams. He prefers forcing them to match-up with him), Gasol will probably get the bulk of the minutes in the middle against Howard. While Gortat is no push-over, he doesn’t have half of Howard’s athleticism, and isn’t anywhere close to the one-man rebounding machine that Orlando forces Howard to be. Bynum has the length and strength to handle Howard defensively, it’s just a matter if Bynum can keep his head on straight, not pick up any quick fouls, and force Howard not to get deep position. This will take the whole team, but Bynum and Gasol need to deny the entry pass (something that Cleveland simply did not do, which was utterly idiotic), while pushing Howard off the block and out of his sweet spot. If you can push Howard from 8 feet from the basket to 10-12 feet, he loses all the accuracy on his lame jump hook and can’t use half of his spins and counter-spins against us. So long as we keep him off the offensive glass and out of good post position, I like our chances of forcing Howard into a bad series. That being said, our best chance will be to force the ball into Gasol or get Kobe to drive and try to get Howard into foul trouble when he comes over to help. If we can limit his offensive rebounds, not give up any dunks, and force him to make free-throws (we’ll see if he can keep making them at the same rate as against Cleveland), I like our chances in this series.
Advantage: Orlando
Overall, I think again that home court advantage will play a huge role in this series. So long as the Lakers take care of business and win games 1 and 2 at home, I don't think there's any way the Magic can beat the Lakers 4 out of 5 games. If the Lakers can hold Orlando to a relatively weak three point percentage (say 33%), and force Howard to make free-throws (no dunks, 20 free throws), LA will hoist the trophy with Kobe Bryant winning the MVP by default. Then again, so long as the Lakers actually show up and play hard, I think they would beat anyone in the league in a 7 game series.
Prediction: LA in 6
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