2009 NBA Playoffs: The Finals

Why did Cleveland, the team with the best record in the NBA, arguably the best defense in the NBA, with the (arguably) best player in the NBA, lose to a Magic team that struggled to knock out a weak Sixers team and a corpse-like Boston team? Answer: Match-ups. This series, like the Orlando-Cleveland series, will again come down to match-ups at each position.

Point Guard
Starters: Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Backups: Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown vs. Anthony Johnson
Frankly, I think the starters in this match-up are pretty even. Alston and Fisher are both solid point guards, but neither is going to kill the opposing team unless the opposing team wants him to (like Cleveland literally begged Alston to shoot). Back-up, however, is where I think we have a slight advantage. Both Farmar and Brown are much, much faster and more athletic than the aging Johnson. That being said, our PG’s need to be disciplined enough to stay at home or be prepared to close out hard, because both Alston and Johnson can hit threes when left open.
Advantage: Even

Shooting Guard
Starters: Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Backups: Sasha Vujacic vs. Mickael Pietrus
Really, if I were in charge, the depth chart of the Magic would be reversed, with Pietrus starting and Lee coming off the bench, simply because Lee isn’t quite big enough to handle Kobe in the post and Pietrus is simply a better on-ball defender. That being said, I love, repeat, love Courtney Lee’s game. I have honestly yet to see him make a turnover, and all of his plays are simple, efficient, and always seem to be the right decision. I still don’t think either of the two can truly stop Kobe Bryant, but Pietrus proved himself to be a very capable stopper by holding Lebron down (in a relative sense) in the ECF. Still, Kobe is a very different player from Lebron, and if Pietrus gives Kobe as much space as he gave Lebron, Kobe will murder him with the mid-range shots. I’m not really so sure about Vujacic, though. While it is a big deal if he isn’t hitting his shots, I think it is even more imperative that he stays at home and makes sure neither of these guys starts stroking away from three. We’ve all seen how much Sasha over-helps; this is the one series where that should not be tolerated.
Advantage: Lakers

Small Forward
Starters: Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Backups: Luke Walton vs. Rashard Lewis
Hedo Turkoglu is really the only small forward that the Magic employ, although Lewis and Pietrus also take some time at small forward. The key to this match-up will be Trevor playing solid man defense against Turkoglu, especially not going for any of Turkoglu’s up-fakes. Turkoglu is a great decision-maker, as evidenced by his solid play against Cleveland, but his two patented moves are the drive and up-fake (a la Paul Pierce) and the drive and step-back three. Both Walton and Ariza should be able to cover Turkoglu effectively, especially after having to deal with Carmelo Anthony, who is easily the best pure scorer at his position. Overall, I think this series will turn on how much trouble Ariza and Walton give Turkoglu, and how much they punish Turkoglu for helping off them to double Kobe or Pau.
Advantage: Magic

Power Forward
Starters: Pau Gasol vs. Rashard Lewis
Backups: Lamar Odom vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Similar to Turkoglu, Lewis is really the only PF that the Magic employ, but as has been stated above, he and Pau both cause each other to have massive match-up problems. I really like Rashard Lewis’ game, with his almost automatic shooting stroke (courtesy of Ray Allen’s OCD infecting Lewis’ practice regimen while in Seattle), and his almost uncoverable pick and pop game with Turkoglu. That being said, Pau has to punish Lewis down-low. Hard. If Lewis is going to give us match-up problems on defense, we need to crush him for trying to defend Pau. In the low post, on the offensive boards, on the defensive boards, in transition, on the foul line, on the three point line, at half-court, everywhere Lewis goes, Pau needs to be beating him up. We’ll see how tough Lewis and his turd-like beard stand up to Pau’s pressure. While Lewis has the advantage on the perimeter, Pau definitely has the advantage inside, and it is the one advantage we will need to abuse the entire series. Odom, meanwhile, needs to keep Lewis in front of him. Lamar’s length should bother some of Lewis’ shots, but Lamar needs to abuse Lewis on the boards just as much as Gasol. If the Magic are goign to play Lewis, we need to exploit his weaknesses, not try and hide from them by trying to match-up on the perimeter. That plays right into the Magic’s hands.
Advantage: Lakers

Center
Starters: Andrew Bynum vs. Dwight Howard
Backups: Pau Gasol vs. Marcin Gortat
While Bynum will be the probable starter (PJ hates changing his starting line-up to match-up with other teams. He prefers forcing them to match-up with him), Gasol will probably get the bulk of the minutes in the middle against Howard. While Gortat is no push-over, he doesn’t have half of Howard’s athleticism, and isn’t anywhere close to the one-man rebounding machine that Orlando forces Howard to be. Bynum has the length and strength to handle Howard defensively, it’s just a matter if Bynum can keep his head on straight, not pick up any quick fouls, and force Howard not to get deep position. This will take the whole team, but Bynum and Gasol need to deny the entry pass (something that Cleveland simply did not do, which was utterly idiotic), while pushing Howard off the block and out of his sweet spot. If you can push Howard from 8 feet from the basket to 10-12 feet, he loses all the accuracy on his lame jump hook and can’t use half of his spins and counter-spins against us. So long as we keep him off the offensive glass and out of good post position, I like our chances of forcing Howard into a bad series. That being said, our best chance will be to force the ball into Gasol or get Kobe to drive and try to get Howard into foul trouble when he comes over to help. If we can limit his offensive rebounds, not give up any dunks, and force him to make free-throws (we’ll see if he can keep making them at the same rate as against Cleveland), I like our chances in this series.
Advantage: Orlando

Overall, I think again that home court advantage will play a huge role in this series. So long as the Lakers take care of business and win games 1 and 2 at home, I don't think there's any way the Magic can beat the Lakers 4 out of 5 games. If the Lakers can hold Orlando to a relatively weak three point percentage (say 33%), and force Howard to make free-throws (no dunks, 20 free throws), LA will hoist the trophy with Kobe Bryant winning the MVP by default. Then again, so long as the Lakers actually show up and play hard, I think they would beat anyone in the league in a 7 game series.

Prediction: LA in 6

2009 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals

In case you missed it, here are my predictions for the conference semifinals, which links to all my earlier posts. Huzzah for a 4-0 round. Sadly no perfects, more on that in a moment.

All right, it's down to the wire, and now it's time to get serious. Picks time, and once again, I guarantee only that I will tout my wins and forget my losses.

#1 Los Angeles (65-17)
#2 Denver (54-28)
Los Angeles won the season series 3-1
First, a recap of the previous series'. Denver played much, much better than I expected, and Dallas played much, much worse than I expected, so Denver winning in 5 came as quite a surprise when Dallas was playing pretty good ball at the time. Similarly, Houston played much, much better than I expected, and LA played much, much than I expected, so the Lakers pulling it out in 7 games was quite a shock. That being said, in games 5 and 7, when the Lakers actually showed up, they simply dominated Houston, like they really should have throughout the entire series. Yet, it seems like they're content to simply flip the switch when they feel like, which is unsettling.

That being said, now it is time to look forward instead of backward. I think this series will be a lot more difficult than most Laker fans are anticipating, but if the Lakers turn it on, I really think they could easily sweep this series. If they don't, however, I can also see it going 7 games. It really depends on which Laker team shows up on any given night. Here are a few keys to the series:

1.) Offensive Rebounding
The twin headed 7-foot monster of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum should eat the Nuggets front line. Kenyon Martin is 6'9, Nene is a very dubious 6'11, and Birdman Andersen is 6'10. So long as both those guys work on the boards, LA should have an enormous rebounding advantage. If Pau Gasol can come out like he did in Game 7 against Houston and really dominate the glass, this Laker team is unstoppable. Likewise, if Denver can play LA to a draw on the boards, that should be considered a win for them.

2.) Bench Play
The Nuggets bench of Anthony Carter, Birdman Andersen, and JR Smith have absolutely obliterated opponents. The Lakers bench has to match their intensity if LA has any chance of winning this series, so that means Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic are going to have to step up. Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic will be especially important, as Walton will almost definitely draw the assignment of guarding Carmelo Anthony, who is literally a scoring machine, and Sasha Vujacic will have the uneviable task of covering JR Smith. If Sasha can shut down JR Smith he did to Von Wafer against Houston, the Lakers will win this series. Smith's shooting is so important to the Nuggets offense, as his bombing away threes really gives them momentum. Taking that momentum away will be critical, and Vujacic will be the key.

3.) Chauncey Billups
I would say Point Guards, but LA's point guard by committee group really can't measure up to Billups. However, it is important that Derek Fisher, Farmar, and Brown all body up to Chauncey and make sure he isn't able to bomb away from the three point line like he did against New Orleans. I think LA would almost prefer Chauncey getting in to the lane as opposed to bombing away from three, as LA plays the passing lanes very well and have very good help interior defense. If the Lakers PG's can play Billups to a draw, LA will walk through this series easily.

Denver is playing with a lot of energy and a lot of effort right now, so it is important for LA to match that intensity from the start, especially in Games 1 and 2. If the Nuggets manage to take either of the first two games in LA, like Houston did, the Lakers will not be able to pull it out. Denver is a very good home team, so it's important that LA hold serve if they want to win this series.

Overall, I could easily see this series being long, with home court dictating who wins in the end. So long as Denver doesn't have a massive meltdown, and LA doesn't give Denver a gift of one of the games in Staples Center in LA, this one goes the distance, going to LA due to homecourt.
Prediction: LA in 7

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#3 Orlando (59-23)
Orlando won the season series, 2-1
I was very impressed by Orlando's Game 7 win against Boston in Boston. Hedo Turkoglu hit some really tough shots, and Rashard Lewis really took advantage of whoever the Celtics through at him. Still, Cleveland has absolutely dominated these playoffs, winning every game by double figures. Yet, Cleveland played Detroit and Atlanta in their two series, who wouldn't even make the playoffs if they played in the Western Conference. That being said, Cleveland's lop-sided victories are a little bit misleading. Orlando really clobbered Cleveland late in the season, a 29-point whomping on April 3rd in Orlando, so it's not as if Orlando simply can't beat Cleveland. However, Cleveland is a different animal in the postseason when Lebron James plays more minutes and the Cavs rotation shortens. Much as I would love to pick the Magic to pull it out, I just can't see the Cavs and James losing, especially when the refs are basically allowing James to bull his way to the hoop whenever he wants. I think Orlando makes this one difficult, especially given that Orlando has beaten Cleveland in Orlando both times that they played in the regular season. Yet, James still gets the edge.
Prediction: Cleveland in 7

2009 NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Semifinals

In case you missed it, check out my Western Conference Semifinals picks, and my first-round picks if you're so inclined to see how awesome I am. Pfff, no one saw Dallas dominating San Antonio, admit it... Overall, I'm 7-1 picking winners with 3 perfects.

Wow, talk about polar opposites. While 5 out of the 7 games between Boston and Chicago were decided by 3 or less points, none of the 7 games between Atlanta and Miami were decided by less than 18. While BOS-CHI was arguably the most exciting series ever, ATL-MIA was a huge snoozefest, every single game decided before the half was over. That being said, after a somewhat exciting Orlando-Philly series in which Philly snuck in a couple victories before going quietly into that good night, and a heinously predictable 4-0 pounding Cleveland unleashed on Detroit, it's time for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#4 Atlanta (47-35)
Cleveland won the season series 3-1
Atlanta is a very good home team. Once more just for emphasis' sake, Atlanta is a very good home team. At home, Atlanta was an impressive 31-10, while they were a paltry 16-25 on the road. That being said, I can't see them taking more than one game from Cleveland. Cleveland is a different animal in the postseason when they shorten their rotation and basically play LeBron for all 48 minutes. However, I really feel like Atlanta is talented enough, and shown by their excellent team defense against Dwyane Wade, they should be able to contain James to some degree. I like their chances of taking at least one game on their home floor, but I don't think Atlanta has it in them to win both. With that and Cleveland's nearly impeccable home record, this one still ends quickly.
Prediction: Cleveland in 5

#2 Boston (62-20)
#3 Orlando (59-23)
Season series tied 2-2
Boston is simply a different team without KG, as shown by their struggles against the young Chicago Bulls, despite 5 amazing games from Ray Allen, who's making the case to be the best clutch shooter ever. Orlando, meanwhile, is playing terrible and will be without their best perimeter defender, Courtney Lee, at SG. The one of the big matchups will be PF, where Rashard Lewis plays an undersized, shooting oriented style, going against the much bigger, fatter, whinier CryBaby Davis. Oh, and Orlando does have Dwight Howard, the 6'11" athletic monster in the middle who is much too fast for Kendrick "I Eat Babies For Pleasure, Not Sustenance" Perkins. This will probably force Boston to double team, something they hate doing, so look for Orlando's shooters to have tons of open shots. Without KG, I just don't think Boston can pull out the victory, especially after playing so hard against Chicago, who were also young and athletic and had shooters galore.

That being said, so long as Boston has Ray Allen and is within 6 points in the final minutes, I'm shaking in my boots if I'm an Orlando supporter. Allen has proven himself to be an assassin, and not just a one-time assassin either. He can do it night-in, night-out, so stopping Allen will be Orlando's toughest mission and the key to this series.
Prediction: Orlando in 6

2009 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Semifinals

Since the Eastern Conference is still utterly undecided, I'll start off with the predictions for the Western conference today and follow up with Eastern Conference picks on Sunday night when Miami plays Atlanta in their game 7. That being said, Boston-Chicago has been epic, and I've been lucky to have caught every single game, and each one has been an instant classic. Could not ask for more in any series.

With that, let's get to the West semifinals picks.

#1 Los Angeles 65-17
#5 Houston 53-29
LA won the season series 4-0

It makes me very sad that LA didn't manage to close out Utah in 4 as I predicted. Despite giving up numerous leads and allowing Utah to make large runs at the end of games, Utah barely managed to beat LA at home by 2, with Kobe Bryant having one of the worst shooting games of his playoff career. Luckily, Houston made up for it by beating Portland in six as predicted. Houston did exactly what I predicted: Steal one of the first two games against the inexperienced Portland, then ride home court to the series win. That being said, this Houston team has now run out of time. Houston had the advantage of playing against one of the league's slowest offenses in Portland, allowing Houston's lock-down individual defense to set itself on almost every possession and utterly shut-down the Blazers potent offense. Meanwhile, the Lakers simply overpowered the Jazz, who could not score nearly enough points to keep up.

Expect LA to get out and run on every chance it gets, repeatedly beating Yao Ming down the court for easy dunks and layups. Also, don't expect Yao Ming to be as unstoppable against the Lakers, as LA is a much more practiced help defense team than Portland. There are advantages all over the court for LA: Scola cannot guard Odom or Gasol, Yao cannot keep up with Bynum or Gasol, and Kobe absolutely loves torching Artest. Similar to the Utah series, I just can't see how the Rockets will keep up against LA purely in terms of scoring.

One thing that cannot be underestimed is the Lakers closing lineup of Fisher, Bryant, Ariza, Odom, and Gasol. With that lineup, Yao cannot guard either Odom or Gasol, so forcing him into the Kobe Gasol Pick-and-Roll will be a nightmare for Houston defensively. On the other side, Houston simply doesn't have a go to scorer if Yao is being doubled hard and the easy passing lanes are being cut off. Oh, and LA also has that guy named Bryant. He's pretty good from what I've heard.
Prediction: LA in 4

#2 Denver 54-28
#6 Dallas 50-32
Denver won the season series 4-0

Both of these teams truly surprised. I did not think that Denver had the defensive prowess to contain Chris Paul, but Dahntay Jones and many others did an excellent job of shutting him down. I also wasn't sure if Dallas could defend a motivated San Antonio, but San Antonio helped them by not having anyone who could score other than Parker and Duncan. Overall, this series is extremely tough to gauge. The teams match-up extremely well, and I really think this series comes down to who can shoot the ball better. Between Dirk Nowitski, Jason Terry, Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony, and JR Smith, this series will feature mostly long bombs and probably very few interior plays. This series hinges on the guard matchups between Billups and Jason Kidd and Jason Terry and JR Smith, where Kidd will be able to guard the relatively slow Billups (at least compared to Chris Paul), and Billups will have to respect Kidd's three point shot and rebounding ability. Between Smith and Terry, it comes down to who plays less defense. Both of these guys can bomb away, but whoever contests better will win the day. Since both these teams are prototypical great at home, .500 on the road teams, and the teams are so evenly matched, I have to go with the homecourt.
Prediction: Denver in 7

2009 NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions

It's that time again! April can only mean two things: the semester is almost over, and the NBA Playoffs are about to begin. And NBA Playoffs means it's predictions time. (As always, I do not guarantee accuracy nor cogency in my picks, but I do guarantee that I will tout my correct predictions and ignore my wrong ones).

Before we begin, a link to the current matchups page on ESPN.com is fitting, as I will be referring to it often. With that, let's remember that the first round series are 2-2-1-1-1, home-away, with the higher seed having home court advantage.

The Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#8 Detroit (39-43)
Cleveland won the season series 3-1
This one is too easy. Detroit is playing terribly at exactly the wrong time in the season, blowing their one chance to avoid Cleveland against Chicago a couple of days ago. Cleveland is easily the best team in the Eastern Conference, with a ridiculous 39-2 home record. This one will be a complete-wash, even with a veteran team like Detroit. Nothing more needs to be said.
Prediction: Cleveland in 4

#2 Boston (62-20)
#7 Chicago (41-41)
Boston won the season series 2-1
The Celtics' title chances were crippled by news breaking earlier today that Kevin Garnett would most likely miss the entirety of the playoffs. A lot of people have Chicago being a hot sleeper pick to upset the C's, but frankly, I don't see it. Yes, Chicago has played like a completely different team since the trade which brought in John Salmons and Brad Miller, but their home victory against the C's was a 127-121 squeaker at home, where John Salmons exploded for 38 points. That's not happening again, you can put money on it. Even without KG, Boston has some ultra-competitors in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, and Pierce's performance in the past few games really has me believing that he could beat Chicago all by himself. Look for Pierce to shut down Salmons in crunchtime via his severely underrated defense, and come up huge in the clutch. And if the Celtics start wavering, look for him to bring back the wheel chair to inspire his team.
Prediction: Celtics in 5

#3 Orlando (59-23)
#6 Philadelphia (41-41)
Orlando won the season series 3-0
Orlando has completely owned Philadelphia this season, but Orlando is also hobbling into the playoffs. Both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis sat out the Magic's final game with injuries, and who knows if they'll be 100% when they return. That being said, the Magic has arguably the best interior defense in the league, almost entirely due to Dwight Howard, which is the 76ers only strength. They're a horrendous 3-point shooting team, shooting .318 as a team this year, compared to the Magic's .381. This is probably the worst possible matchup the 76ers could have drawn, and I really can't see them winning a single game in this series unless Hedo and Lewis are seriously hurt.
Prediction: Orlando in 4

#4 Atlanta (47-35)
#5 Miami (43-39)
Atlanta won the season series 3-1
This series is so difficult to call. This is the prototypical "team versus man" game, which will feature the Hawks' team defense going against the offensive force that is Dwyane Wade. Ultimately, I think this series will come down to home court and the referees, who could really tilt this one either way. If the ref's call a fair series, I think the Hawks should be favored to win. But if the refs decide it's their duty to protect Dwyane Wade, the Heat will win easily. Both teams are very good on their home court, so I really think this will go down to game 7 in Atlanta, which is really a toss up. Much as I would love to call it a draw, I have to pick a team to win, so I'm going with home court.
Prediction: Atlanta in 7

The Western Conference

#1 Los Angeles (65-17)
#8 Utah (48-34)
Los Angeles won the season series 2-1
This Utah team seems eerily similar to last year's Denver team, in that they're just not that good. We can all see they have a ton of potential, as evidenced by their decent playoff runs the past couple years, but this year they just haven't put it together, mostly due to injury. Deron Williams is still ultra-dangerous, but I just don't see him winning a game by himself, especially when Boozer and Kirilenko are giving the Jazz almost nothing. Given that the one loss the Lakers had against the Jazz came right before the All-Star Break after a 6 game road trip, when Millsap was a double-double machine, in which the Lakers came out completely flat, I can't see the Jazz's home court putting them over the top in any game, unless they successfully threaten the refs' lives before each game in SLC.
Prediction: Los Angeles in 4

#2 Denver (54-28)
#7 New Orleans (49-33)
Season series tied 2-2
Denver seems like a complete enigma. Sometimes they do look like the 2nd best team in the West, other nights they come out with nothing, like last night against Portland. Yet, I feel like the Nuggets match up very well with the Hornets. No one is stopping CP3, that's a given. However, the lack of a low-post threat for the Hornets prevents them from exploiting Denver's biggest weakness: the lack of a legitimate post defender. That being said, the Nuggets help a lot, especially Birdman Andersen, who loves to leave his man for blocks. This will give Chris Paul a ton of assists, and so long as he makes good decisions, I feel like the Hornets will cruise. Nevertheless, they'll need a masterful performance from Chris Paul to pull it off, and at least 20 minutes of Tyson Chandler per night. The X-Factor will be Chauncey Billups: if he can push Chris Paul around and bomb threes over the much-shorter Paul, even a masterful performance from CP3 may not be enough. The steadying hand of Billups seems like it may be enough to put Denver over the top, but this series really comes down to Billups vs. Paul and who gets the best of the other.
Prediction: Denver in 7

#3 San Antonio (54-28)
#6 Dallas (50-32)
Season series tied 2-2
San Antonio is coming into the playoffs with Tony Parker, half of Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili's still-warm corpse, which doesn't bode well for them, going against a Dallas team that's been playing fairly well of late. That being said, somehow, someway, San Antonio gets it done in the playoffs. This series reminds a ton of last year, when almost everyone had the younger, faster, quicker Phoenix Suns winning over the older, slower Spurs, and they showed us who still wears the pants. Everything, and I mean everything, including health, age, momentum, and style of play all point to the Mavericks winning, but I just can't do it. Something in my gut tells me that the Spurs have some playoff magic left in their old bones, before they tank next season away in order to land a new Tim Duncan (trust me, it's going to happen).
Prediction: Spurs in 5

#4 Portland (54-28)
#5 Houston (53-29)
Houston won the seasons series 2-1
Houston really has the Blazers number. Despite all odds, the Blazers match up very poorly with the Rockets, getting clobbered in Houston on their last winning, and just barely taking their first matchup in Portland on a Brandon Roy game-winning three. Portland is the hot pick to make noise in the West and give the Lakers their biggest challenge, but one thing not to be discounted is their lack of playoff experience. I'm looking for the Rockets to come out strong and steal one of the first two games in Portland, then ride that momentum to their first playoff series win since Hakeem Olajuwon was around. This series is shaping up to be probably the most entertaining of the first round, not just because of the roughly equal talent level of both teams, but also for the slight chance that Ron Artest will jump into the stands and punch out a few Portlanders, which is never a bad thing.
Prediction: Houston in 6